BLS Employment Report, Recession Watch, Inflation and the Fed


By Victor Sperandeo with the Curmudgeon


Biden’s Approval Ratings Continue to Drop:

The abysmal U.S. economic conditions have contributed to Joe Biden’s negative approval rating, which keeps hitting new lows. The RealClearPolitics poll average shows Joe Biden’s presidency reaching terminally unpopular levels, with a 38% approval and 57% disapproval — or a net -19.3% disapproval.


The latest national Monmouth poll is just a massacre. Since April 2021, Biden’s approval rating has held steady or gotten worse in every single Monmouth poll, and he is now at 36 percent approval to 58 percent disapproval, consistent with the general trend in which he continues to sink no matter which pollster is asking the questions. Eighty-eight percent of voters say the country is on the wrong track.


When Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted that inflation (he refers to price increases rather than money supply growth), was not transitory on 11/30/21, the esteemed Harris Poll showed Biden at 45% approve to 51% disapprove (-6% net disapproval). The polls of Biden’s performance have gone straight down from there to the current worst rating of any President at this time of term in office.


Does the Fed believe that if it pivots in September and causes stock and bond market rallies (with a lower Fed Funds rate increase than expected) that would help Biden and the Dems in the 2022 midterm elections? If so, that would be a “Keystone Cops” strategy.


Disclaimer:

I do not trust or use any data from the U.S. government, including agencies (e.g., the BLS, BEA, etc.), affiliates or even the institutions that are potentially influenced by the government’s power. Instead, I do my own deep due diligence for “investment” purposes only. That involves analysis of original source documentation with verification from credible sources.


Curmudgeon Comment:

Economists expect that the CPI for June 2022, to be released on July 13th, will hit a fresh 40+ year high of 8.8%, according to a poll conducted by Reuters. [The monthly core index is forecast to decline to 5.8% from 6.0% in May.] The CPI probably rose nearly 9% in June from a year earlier, based on the median projection of economists in a Bloomberg survey. If those forecasts are correct, count on a 75 bps Fed Funds rate hike at the FOMC meeting on July 27th.

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Quote:

Quote by Sir Josiah Stamp:

“Banking was conceived in iniquity and was born in sin. The bankers own the earth. Take it away from them, but leave them the power to create money, and with the flick of the pen they will create enough deposits to buy it back again. However, take away from them the power to create money and all the great fortunes like mine will disappear and they ought to disappear, for this would be a happier and better world to live in. But if you wish to remain the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, let them continue to create money." Said to be from an informal talk at the University of Texas in the 1920s.

 

The statements in this communication are the opinions of its author, Victor Sperandeo, and are not to be relied upon by anyone as the basis for an investment decision. Any investments made by a party in reliance thereon are made at such party’s sole risk. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where opinions as to past or future market conditions/events are provided. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.