November Anomalies


There were plenty of market anomalies in November. S&P 500 futures PR were up nearly 11%, the most in any month since 1988. December Bitcoin futures PR were up +42%, a “wow” performance. U.S. Treasury Bond futures PR were about flat and the U.S. Dollar was down a little over 2%, but December gold futures PR were down over 5% (that was a highly unusual result with the U.S. Dollar down). However, commodities as a whole were up 10.59%, using the CRB Commodity Index PR as a guide.


The sell-off in gold and silver was explained by “risk-off” positioning, due to the champion of wealth creation - Joe Biden - looking like he has a good chance of being President. The story being told here is that there will be massive federal spending under his leadership. However, if the fiat money goes to paying past debts - like the debt of states and cities - it cannot truly be called stimulus, since paying bills reduces (bad) debts and does not add new money to the economy. There’s also the matter of the run-off elections for both Georgia seats in the U.S. Senate, which will help determine how much spending there will actually be. If the GOP wins at least one of those seats they will maintain control of the Senate.


If Biden is president and the Senate goes to the Democrats, I believe that America is in deep trouble beyond the economic effects, as the nation looks like it can be manipulated into a democratic victory using mail-in ballots and questionable voting machines. This is what the greatest risk is all about: without honest elections the people lose their Constitutional legal power. They’ll still have their Declaration of Independence power, but the past suggests they will not use it.


December will likely be about tax positioning and finalizing the election (it may not be legally decided till January 6th). COVID-19 is also an issue, as the cases continue to accumulate, but the death rates are stable. December has the potential to be the cherry on top of a year that has been far different than any other I can think of.

The statements in this communication are the opinions of its author, Victor Sperandeo, and are not to be relied upon by anyone as the basis for an investment decision. Any investments made by a party in reliance thereon are made at such party’s sole risk. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where opinions as to past or future market conditions/events are provided. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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